NYMTC Brown Bag Lunch: If You Build It, They Will Come?? A Dynamic Analysis of the Factors Affecting the Transit Ridership in the New York City Region

January 7, 2010   12:00 pm   
New York Metropolitan Transportation Council
199 Water St. (bet. Fulton & John Sts.), 22nd Floor
RSVP to Gretchen Riederer at GRiederer @ dot . state . ny . us or 212-383-7258
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University Transportation Research Center, Region II

Motivated by the recent rapid escalation of gasoline prices and the accompanied increases in transit ridership, population and employment, and transit service levels, this presentation will cover the results of a study which sought to untangle the effects of these factors on transit ridership, using a time-series dataset of commuter rail ridership from New Jersey Transit.

The study tries to answer two questions: (1) what is the causal relationship between transit supply and transit demand? And (2) what are the short-term and long-term impacts of gasoline price on transit ridership, while accounting for other factors? Results support the "demand follows supply" hypothesis, indicating that changes to transit supplied (measured in vehicle revenue miles) will affect the demand for transit. This presentation, by Don Varley, City College of New York, will explore the results in detail, discussing the effects of gasoline prices on transit ridership.