Comments on: The Cost of Lowballing Light Rail Ridership Projections

By: Patrick

Patrick — Wed, 20 Jan 2010 21:37:59 +0000

PA-TEC has linked a paper I recently published on this very topic, but viewed through a much different lens. If you are interested in how transportation models work, and especially in some of their shortcomings and the legal results thereof, I’d encourage you to take a look at it.

http://www.vermontlawreview.org/articles/v34/1/munson.pdf

By: JDR

JDR — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 17:57:57 +0000

FTA doesn’t do the forecasts, but criticizes them.. relentlessly. It’s good to poke at the “black box” that produces travel forecasts and better understand what’s informing the forecasts because there are many regions that would use the model as a political tool. Many communities want light rail just because it looks good. It’s especially difficult to predict ridership in communities that currently don’t have light rail because these models are based on that region’s travel surveys and people’s travel patterns using the current system (before light rail is introduced). What I dislike is FTA’s insistence on comparing light rail to a fictional bus project that most regions probably wouldn’t support or ever develop. The cost effectiveness should be based on the light rail project versus the existing transit in the corridor as a baseline.

By: I \v/ NY

I \v/ NY — Tue, 22 Sep 2009 19:09:17 +0000

if i had to live in phoenix for job reasons, i’d choose to live along the LRT line. i’d guess the same would be true for just about everyone else here. and so i guess a lot of the ridership is fueled by urban-minded transplants living in the phoenix area solely for the jobs, who hate phoenix-style endless desert sprawl and living 20 hours a day in one’s car. one’s place of work may be in exurbia requiring them to drive to work on weekdays. but come weekends when they are at home enjoying their free time in the more “urban” parts of phoenix, they choose to travel by rail. at least thats how i interpret the ridership numbers.

getting a new LRT system (and really the first mass transit line beyond a simple bus) was a big deal and was the best xmas present ever for the transplant urbanists living in phoenix which is also why i take it the grand opening attracted so many people.

By: JJM

JJM — Tue, 22 Sep 2009 00:44:15 +0000

So, does that mean light rail in the Albany/Schenectady/Troy area might actually be cost-effective? Our local MPO decided to fund bus rapid transit instead of light rail, based on cost-effectiveness projections.

BRT will only take 15 minutes off the downtown-to-downtown time. Pretty rapid, huh?

By: jass

jass — Mon, 21 Sep 2009 22:16:36 +0000

I agree with rlb. Its much easier to get expansion if everything is going better than expected, and the opponents look dumb.

By: Randy Luethye

Randy Luethye — Mon, 21 Sep 2009 20:40:21 +0000

A “Train Business Directory” has been developed for nine cities and has just crossed the one million hits mark over the last year. Called LightRailNetwork.com, the success of the website can be attributed to Phoenix. See the website for parks, businesses, churches and more near train stations.

By: rlb

rlb — Mon, 21 Sep 2009 16:24:22 +0000

So long as it passes the CE requirement, I have no problem with the figure being lowballed. I’d rather people be surprised by success than disappointed by failure. In the nytimes article, they talk of plans to add to the Phoenix line. Had they overestimated the ridership, this anti-transit Rhoades person would be considered a prophet and she’d have more credibility going forward. Instead she comes off as an ass.