We'll never know, since the conditions of the hypothesis are impossible to satisfy. What we do know is that compliance in NYC is terrible among all modes of street users, resulting in gridlock for automobiles and death, injury, and frustration for everyone else. Even if compliance could be made perfect, by magic, I have my doubts that things would be so great for pedestrians and cyclists (or even cars) given our present streets and statues. We have to move forward with the recognition that those things are fluid, that it is our right and even responsibility as a civilization to think about how to make them better.

And so it is that people who prefer the status quo (who are comfortable with their current set of privileges) will focus on compliance and law enforcement in order to dismiss new designs and programs that aim to fix problems at their source (poor compliance being merely a symptom). With congestion pricing the fake (and childish, really) alternative of $1000 double parking tickets was suggested to distract New Yorkers, but of course extreme penalties did not and SHOULD NOT come to pass, because in addition to not being London, Stockholm, or Paris, New York is not Pyongyang. Some people seem to be aiming for Mexico City, but I think we're starting to find a path through the wasteland of automotive failure. Parts of it will be inspired by successes in the EU and elsewhere, and parts of it will be of our own invention.

A very aggressive local initiative will not only save a lot of lives but be crucial to a major transformation for New York City to meet the demands of modern civilization and lead the way in eradicating a key part of the structural violence of antiquated urban design.

Indeed, let's have auto DRIVERS show some responsibility!! after all, they sign a piece of paper that basically says they know and will obey the road rules.

The only real hope for safety improvements is to focus on behavior modification.

We'd all love to see the plan!

DOT's budget is small and shrinking. The idea that we can design our way to safety is utopian. We are in a built environment that is not going to see anything other than marginal physical improvements. The current DOT regime has lots of good ideas and is very good at generating PR about these ideas, but the reality is that they don't have much impact at their current scale. The only real hope for safety improvements is to focus on behavior modification.

"what is amazing is that the recent reduction in NYC has occurred with a piecemeal approach. only a relative handful of dangerous streets and intersections have seen improvements. imagine what a vision zero approach and the systematic application of ped safety measures (like LPIs for example) could accomplish."

What's amazing is that people actually believe that the long-term (downward) trends (both locally and nationally) in accident and fatality rates are actually caused by these piecemeal changes. Safer cars, better trauma medicine, and major efforts to reduced drunk driving are much more significant factors.

"crash numbers, after years of decline, have leveled off. that is why we need a new approach" First, there has been one year of leveling off of some categories of crashes, which does not a trend make. Second, the population has been increasing continuously, as has the number of people driving in NYC, so in fact rates of crashes and fatality are continuing to drop.

"A pedestrian was killed crossing here, slow the fuck down."

we're not saying "Sweden good, NYC bad" we're saying that accepting several score deaths and injuries a year as business-as-usual is bad. and sure, sweden might have something to learn from NYC too.

what is amazing is that the recent reduction in NYC has occurred with a piecemeal approach. only a relative handful of dangerous streets and intersections have seen improvements. imagine what a vision zero approach and the systematic application of ped safety measures (like LPIs for example) could accomplish.

I was simply pointing out that public advocacy with a credibility gap big enough to drive a Volvo through doesn't do anyone any good. Claiming Sweden Good, NYC Bad without any supporting information or research is just that.

Mark, the fatality picture in NYC has and continues to be very well chronicled. You can even look it up on Streetsblog.

Anyway, a quick internet search yields this comparison:

2000-2004 road deaths decline in Sweden: -19%
2000-2004 road deaths decline in NYC: -28%

Sure, any segment of time like this is subject to variations and change over the long run, etc., but it's pretty clear that Vision Zero hasn't led to real world safety gains that in any way put NYC to shame.

So, Punk, what "global best practice" are you actually talking about?

crash numbers, after years of decline, have leveled off. that is why we need a new approach.

if T.A. and the City listened to those who have decried global best practice because NYC is a such a "unique context" then we would would not have summer streets, BRT, protected bike lanes, parking reforms, and a host of other great stuff that has been successfully adapted and adopted of late.

"The Mayor also released final 2007 traffic fatality data today showing that traffic fatalities in New York City dropped to the lowest level since records started being kept in 1910: 271 traffic fatalities citywide, down more than 30% since 2001. There were also an all-time low 136 pedestrian deaths last year-13% fewer than previous lows in both 2004 and 2005."

http://www.nyc.gov/portal/site/nycgov/menuitem.c0935b9a57bb4ef3daf2f1c701c789a0/index.jsp?pageID=mayor_press_release&catID=1194&doc_name=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nyc.gov%2Fhtml%2Fom%2Fhtml%2F2008a%2Fpr033-08.html&cc=unused1978&rc=1194&ndi=1

http://www.nyc.gov/html/dot/downloads/pdf/stratplan_safety.pdf

http://www.streetsblog.org/2008/01/18/bloomberg-touches-on-safe-streets-pricing-in-state-of-the-city/

In our litigious American society, there is not enough money in all the city's coffers to address the liability implications of that statement. It would simply bankrupt the city government overnight.