Comments on: A “Vision Zero” for New York? http://www.streetsblog.org/2008/02/01/a-vision-zero-for-new-york/ Covering the New York City Streets Renaissance Mon, 23 Nov 2009 11:07:22 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8 hourly 1 By: Anthony M. Humphreys http://www.streetsblog.org/2008/02/01/a-vision-zero-for-new-york/comment-page-1/#comment-44024 Anthony M. Humphreys Sun, 03 Feb 2008 09:18:37 +0000 http://www.streetsblog.org/2008/02/01/a-vision-zero-for-new-york/#comment-44024 I see two factors are fighting each other. More cyclists means a greater safety for the streets (Safety in Numbers effect). But new cyclists, that is those cyclists with less than about 4 years of experience, are much more likley to be involved in a crash, collision, or fall resulting in injury or death. While new riders are being attracted to cycling I would expect to see a rise in the number of injuries, then a leveling off before seeing the injury rate decrease again. Cycling education, like Effective Cycling or CAN-BIKE (in Canada), reduces the learning curve to months instead of years. It is very difficult, however, to teach a large number of new riders. And even more difficult to convince them of the need to take such a program. I am always saddened to hear about injuries and deaths. I hope that, whatever the cause, it is addressed and the numbers of injuries start to fall again. Best of luck to you. I'll be watching to see what happens. I see two factors are fighting each other.

More cyclists means a greater safety for the streets (Safety in Numbers effect).

But new cyclists, that is those cyclists with less than about 4 years of experience, are much more likley to be involved in a crash, collision, or fall resulting in injury or death.

While new riders are being attracted to cycling I would expect to see a rise in the number of injuries, then a leveling off before seeing the injury rate decrease again.

Cycling education, like Effective Cycling or CAN-BIKE (in Canada), reduces the learning curve to months instead of years. It is very difficult, however, to teach a large number of new riders. And even more difficult to convince them of the need to take such a program.

I am always saddened to hear about injuries and deaths. I hope that, whatever the cause, it is addressed and the numbers of injuries start to fall again.

Best of luck to you. I'll be watching to see what happens.

]]> By: flp http://www.streetsblog.org/2008/02/01/a-vision-zero-for-new-york/comment-page-1/#comment-43969 flp Fri, 01 Feb 2008 18:42:50 +0000 http://www.streetsblog.org/2008/02/01/a-vision-zero-for-new-york/#comment-43969 i have soem concerns about the safety-in-numbers rule. what scenario(s) will safety-in-numbers really work (sorry too lazy to look up PJ's law and its application, etc.)? while i agree that an overall increase in cyclists on the streets may raise awareness and, therefore, visibility of cyclists, but i often felt that true safety in nunmbers develops when as many cyclists as possible ride together as a group. does anyone else feel there is a distinction between the two, or is it all the same in the end? in the case of the discussions related to the crash/fatality stats most folks seem to invoke the former scenario. however, that scenario may work best if the latter scenario takes place more often. then again there is that seemingly unsual trend for 2007. perhaps with more cyclists out there, motorists' ire is also rising? OR motorists are more stressed due to the increased emotional, monetary and time costs of driving in NYC? i have soem concerns about the safety-in-numbers rule.

what scenario(s) will safety-in-numbers really work (sorry too lazy to look up PJ's law and its application, etc.)? while i agree that an overall increase in cyclists on the streets may raise awareness and, therefore, visibility of cyclists, but i often felt that true safety in nunmbers develops when as many cyclists as possible ride together as a group. does anyone else feel there is a distinction between the two, or is it all the same in the end?

in the case of the discussions related to the crash/fatality stats most folks seem to invoke the former scenario. however, that scenario may work best if the latter scenario takes place more often.

then again there is that seemingly unsual trend for 2007. perhaps with more cyclists out there, motorists' ire is also rising? OR motorists are more stressed due to the increased emotional, monetary and time costs of driving in NYC?

]]> By: Charles Komanoff http://www.streetsblog.org/2008/02/01/a-vision-zero-for-new-york/comment-page-1/#comment-43963 Charles Komanoff Fri, 01 Feb 2008 17:37:53 +0000 http://www.streetsblog.org/2008/02/01/a-vision-zero-for-new-york/#comment-43963 The safety-in-numbers relationship does NOT "posit that doubling the number of cyclists on the road tends to bring about a corresponding one-third reduction in vehicle-cyclist crashes." Rather, it posits a roughly one-third reduction in the *per-cyclist rate* of such crashes. The total number of crashes increases, but by less than the increase in cycling. My 2001 letter in Injury Prevention, written in collaboration with Peter Jacobsen, may help here: http://www.komanoff.net/bicycle/safety_in_numbers.php S'blog also quotes T.A. as saying that the number of cycle injuries and fatalities has dropped 40% in ten years. While that may be true for injuries, it doesn't seem so for fatalities -- at least not based on the data here. The safety-in-numbers relationship does NOT "posit that doubling the number of cyclists on the road tends to bring about a corresponding one-third reduction in vehicle-cyclist crashes." Rather, it posits a roughly one-third reduction in the *per-cyclist rate* of such crashes. The total number of crashes increases, but by less than the increase in cycling.

My 2001 letter in Injury Prevention, written in collaboration with Peter Jacobsen, may help here: http://www.komanoff.net/bicycle/safety_in_numbers.php

S'blog also quotes T.A. as saying that the number of cycle injuries and fatalities has dropped 40% in ten years. While that may be true for injuries, it doesn't seem so for fatalities -- at least not based on the data here.

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