Wall Street Journal Declares Peak Oil No Longer a “Fringe” Idea

by Aaron Naparstek on November 19, 2007

Realizing that it's generally considered passé if not altogether wacky to talk about New York City transportation policy and politics in the context of global energy business, a Wall Street Journal story this morning confirms that global fossil fuel production appears to be hitting a plateau. In other words, Peak Oil is no longer a crazy idea and the faster that New York City can reduce its dependence on gas-guzzling cars and trucks, the better off we'll likely be. From this morning's paper:

A growing number of oil-industry chieftains are endorsing an idea long deemed fringe: The world is approaching a practical limit to the number of barrels of crude oil that can be pumped every day.

Some predict that, despite the world's fast-growing thirst for oil, producers could hit that ceiling as soon as 2012. This rough limit -- which two senior industry officials recently pegged at about 100 million barrels a day -- is well short of global demand projections over the next few decades. Current production is about 85 million barrels a day.

The world certainly won't run out of oil any time soon. And plenty of energy experts expect sky-high prices to hasten the development of alternative fuels and improve energy efficiency. But evidence is mounting that crude-oil production may plateau before those innovations arrive on a large scale. That could set the stage for a period marked by energy shortages, high prices and bare-knuckled competition for fuel.

The outstanding Oil Drum blog also notes two related but extremely wonky studies by Stuart Staniford and Sam Foucher. The studies suggest that daily production from the world's biggest oil fields are declining at a much faster rate than previously projected.

And, as he does every Monday morning, author James Howard Kunstler puts the issue into perspective; this week, following a trip to the outer reaches of New York state exurbia:

Of course, I am aware that my ability to venture easily into the outlands of Washington County, New York, is not something that I can take for granted much longer. A year or so from now, I may have to plan ahead, even make sacrifices, to travel so distantly from where I live. In the meantime, I wonder with the keenest curiosity what is going through the minds of the people who dwell out there. Surely they've noticed that gasoline is $3.25. One can easily imagine the granite countertop in the kitchen where the bills are piling up, the frightening invoices from Master Card and Discovery, along with dunning letters from the company that "services" the mortgage. One can imagine the feelings of despondency creeping up the veins of the household lord and his lady as they contemplate the distress sale of their motorboat, jet skis, snowmobiles, and RV -- and the futility even of trying.