Comments on: Richard Heinberg: Saudi Oil Supply May be Crashing

By: Oil Shock

Oil Shock — Thu, 07 Sep 2006 03:02:38 +0000

I come from Austrian school of economics. I am all for complete laissez faire. But as far as peak oil goes, we will be going into a shrinking economy, if you want to know why, you can check my website theviewfromthepeak.net Socialism will not solve the problem either. No protocols and human intervention can solve it.

By: AD

AD — Wed, 06 Sep 2006 21:26:56 +0000

To expand on that: People are influenced to change their behavior (perhaps first and foremost) by economics and questions of money. But that’s not the only thing we are influenced by. We are also influenced by ideas. The idea that the automobile is an energy guzzler is, I think, a powerful motivator.

By: AD

AD — Wed, 06 Sep 2006 21:20:10 +0000

There are a whole host of reasons why it is important to try to reduce auto dependency and traffic congestion, regardless of whether or not an energy crisis is looming. (After reading Matt Simmons, I happen to think there is.)

As for the question of why hype that up: I don’t look at it as a distraction. I think if people come to understand the fragility and impermanence of the transportation system as it stands now, they may opt to take actions to minimize their own risk against a potential problem. In other words, it might make people buy a house near transit, boosting land values there and hence TOD prospects, or it might make people not buy that SUV. It might make people start to look at rail funding less as a “subsidy” and more as an “investment.”

By: Orcutt

Orcutt — Wed, 06 Sep 2006 19:16:31 +0000

I think the scenario of the oil pipes going dry one day is significantly overblown and has been since the 1970s. Supply and demand are already at work in this regard if you look at travel behavior in our region and at public spending trends on transportation across the country. Obviously the latter could be improved a lot but the shifts have been significant.

However, at the level of “message,” which is what my original comment was aimed at, people are still more responsive to other, more immediate arguments about convenience and quality of life than they are to big world-disaster scenarios and probably always will be.

By: Glenn

Glenn — Wed, 06 Sep 2006 18:52:49 +0000

Orcutt – Currently automobiles are not just the preferred mode of transportation for most people, but the only mode available and in some place the lack of density would even preclude any mass transit options. And automobiles currently only have one primary fuel – oil based liquids.

In order for a market to have price elasticity it needs viable substitutes in fuel, in modes and that requires a more proactive approach than simply sitting back and waiting for supply and demand work themselves out. It’s not the only reason to implement ped/bike friendly and mass transit oriented ideas, but another practical reason for creating automobile alternatives.

By: Adam Piontek

Adam Piontek — Wed, 06 Sep 2006 18:35:28 +0000

“Simple supply and demand” is a whitewash for a whole host of bad things. People starving because their oil-fueled food supply is cut off. People dying because oil-dependent medical supplies and techniques are suddenly too expensive. People starving and dying or at least massive rolls of people entering poverty ast he economy shudders under the energy shift.

“Simple supply and demand” will solve it in the sense that, yes, some people will be left standing after the suffering. People always use “supply and demand” to paper over real human problems. Yes, the market is a wonderful thing, but it has no morals or ethics. People do.

By: Kurt

Kurt — Wed, 06 Sep 2006 18:13:08 +0000

#1:

Because if peak oil is happening, it’ll happen rather quickly and crash our economy, which is almost entirely predicated on the availability of cheap energy. A sinking economy will struggle with the enormous task of rearranging our way of life without serious hardship.

By: Jason

Jason — Wed, 06 Sep 2006 18:11:09 +0000

One point that should be made is this…if oil peaks before you even start preparing for a post oil world – your society is toast.

One needs to get ahead of the issue, or else your option will severly limited when it actually happens.

By: Aaron

Aaron — Wed, 06 Sep 2006 17:40:26 +0000

Well, you’ve got a point. But if you’re not a Peak Oil nut then you are an Environmental Nut, a Bike Nut or, get this, I once heard someone call us Public Space Nuts.

By: Orcutt

Orcutt — Wed, 06 Sep 2006 17:26:20 +0000

Why hype this “peak oil” stuff? If it happens, simple supply and demand will promote all the transit, walking, new fuels etc. you could hope for.

If it doesn’t, you look like the latest in a long line of nutty futurists.

In any case, it’s a big distraction from the task of building a liveable, less car dependent city and region because it’s the right thing to do from a great many points of view.